Small boat crossings down 40%... but Labour can’t take the credit

Tangible successes delivered by this Labour government have been few and far between over the two years since they came to power in 2024. The UK economy continues to falter, unemployment remains at close to 10 million people, inflation has persisted at higher levels than they inherited from the previous Tory government, the welfare bill has risen by £30bn per year, the tax burden on working people is at a post-war high, and UK net debt has surpassed the £3trn mark for the first time ever.

However, the one positive that Labour politicians and activists alike repeatedly point to as proof that this Labour government is on the right track is the fall in the number of small boat crossings across the channel this year. Time and again, when challenged over their repeated failures, we see left wing political commentators, Labour advisors and MPs divert the conversation to highlight their achievements in reducing small boat crossings, which they claim have reduced by 40% since 2025.

They claim that this is proof that Shabana Mahmood’s immigration policies, combined with the actions of the French Gendarmerie in policing the French beaches (at a cost to the British taxpayer approaching £1bn), are working.

Now, no reasonable person could claim that a 40% reduction in illegal small boat crossings is anything but positive news. But is this truly a reflection of Labours “smash the gangs” policies coming to fruition? Or is it simply the result of our European neighbours becoming more savvy in protecting their own borders, stymieing the flow of migrants across the continent on their way to our shores?

Unfortunately for Labour, the answer is the latter. Despite their repeated attempts to gaslight the British public into believing it is the actions of our Government that are to be credited with this favourable downward trend, this is simply not true.

Britain is benefitting from a near 40% drop in illegal border crossings into the continent of Europe in 2026

Data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) shows that total sea arrivals in to Europe have fallen by 39% in 2026. Nearly 39,000 irregular crossings were recorded in the first five months of 2026, compared to approx. 60,000 in the comparative period last year, building on a 26% decrease in total arrivals seen across 2025. Routes from West Africa have seen the steepest drop, plunging by about 70%, whilst Central Mediterranean routes dropped by 52%, Eastern Mediterranean routes declined by 20%, and illegal crossings over the Eastern land border (through Belarus and Ukraine) fell by 39%.

In response to a surge in polling for populist right-wing parties across Europe, coupled with mounting public pressure, Governments across the continent have finally started to take the threat of illegal immigration seriously. Enhanced national border controls, joint operations with neighbouring countries, the suspension of certain family reunification programmes, and stricter EU external border management have all contributed to the EU getting a tighter grip on the operations of illegal people traffickers, and restricting the flow of illegal immigrants through the continent.

Italy

Illegal migrant arrivals and sea crossings in Italy have decreased significantly in 2026 compared to previous years, with the Italian Interior Ministry reporting an 82% decrease compared to 2023 and early-year figures down by roughly 50% to nearly 70% relative to prior periods.

Greece

Greece has also recorded a notable drop in illegal migrant sea arrivals this year compared to previous years, with official entry numbers falling by over a third in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Illegal entries originating from Turkey also dropped by well over half during the first half of 2026 relative to 2025. Following a surge of arrivals from North Africa (particularly Libya and Egypt) targeting Crete and Gavdos in late 2025, stricter government measures, policy crackdowns, and a temporary suspension of asylum application processing in specific areas has helped dramatically curb subsequent flow rates.

Germany

Between January and September 2026, the German Federal Police recorded 36,523 unauthorised entries nationwide, showing a steep downward trend. In June 2026 alone, only 3,290 unauthorised entries were recorded. This marks a major multi-year decline from the peak levels seen in recent years. Illegal entries into Germany have dropped heavily from over 127,000 in early 2023 and around 83,000 in early 2024, down to roughly 24,329 in the first half of 2025/2026. German authorities attribute the sharp drop to permanent, expanded internal land border checks introduced in late 2024 and intensified in 2025. Between May 2025 and mid-2026, German border police turned back tens of thousands of individuals attempting to cross the borders without valid permits.

People smugglers are finding new locations to launch from

Another factor that needs to be considered is that the people smugglers are expanding the geographical spread of their launch locations. Whereas in recent years, small boat crossings have originated almost exclusively from the French coastline, and typically from a very limited stretch of coastline around Calais where the channel is at its narrowest, people smuggling gangs have expanded their launch zones into a sprawling 140-mile arc, stretching far beyond the traditional hubs of Calais and Dunkirk.

Due to increased joint UK-French police enforcement on northern beaches, smugglers have shifted operations North-East into Belgium, and significantly further South-West along the Normandy coastline.

As a result, whilst overall illegal entries into Europe are down, Belgium has reported a sharp increase in illegal migrant beach departures and smuggling activity along its own coast.

This expansion of launch sites has made it much harder to prevent crossings, and to intercept the boats in the water, given the significantly increased nautical distance that needs to be monitored.

As a result, the reality is we probably don’t know what the true number of small boat arrivals is this year, as many more are likely reaching UK beaches undetected.

Labour claims credit for other leaders’ successes

So, the gaslighting continues from this clueless Labour Government. Virtually every favourable metric that they point to as “evidence” that their plan is working can be attributed to another cause, or is the result of their own deliberate actions to distort the statistics.

They claimed that NHS waiting lists have come down… but they failed to disclose that they paid NHS hospital trusts millions of pounds to conduct "list cleansing" or "validation" exercises to remove patients from waiting lists. NHS England paid hospital trusts approximately £3 million a month between April and September (totalling over £18.8 million), during which period more than half a million patients were removed from waiting lists administratively. Between 250,000 to 268,000 patients were administratively removed from waiting lists in the month of January alone.

They claim that the numbers of illegal immigrants being housed in hotel accommodation is down, insinuating this reflects a broader success in border controls and immigration policy. But we all know that they have simply relocated them into HMOs across the country… a far worse solution that has seen thousands of undocumented and potentially dangerous foreign men become untraceable with greater geographic dispersal and lack of monitoring.

And now we can see that their attempts to take credit for the reduction in small boat crossings represent just another example of this government attempting to gaslight the British public, who at this stage they clearly regard as little more than gullible simpletons.